{
  "as_of": "2026-10-16T09:07:11.537Z",
  "triggers": [
    {
      "id": "capex_funding",
      "name": "1 · AI capex funding (hyperscaler free cash flow)",
      "value": "-$5.1bn reported FCF (2 of 4 names)",
      "band": "red",
      "reading": "The two names that have reported are already cash-flow negative — the buildout is funded by debt and vendor financing, not operations. Amazon reported negative too but unquantified; Microsoft is the swing name to verify.",
      "manual": true,
      "detail": "Alphabet $-5.9bn (reported; buybacks suspended) · Amazon: reported negative in Q2; not quantified in sources I have · Meta $0.8bn (reported; from ~$13bn a year earlier) · Microsoft: not in sources I have; capex $30.9bn/quarter",
      "watch": "Does FCF turn positive again in the Q3 round? That single line kills or confirms the bubble thesis."
    },
    {
      "id": "rev_gap",
      "name": "2 · AI revenue vs break-even",
      "value": "$230bn short",
      "band": "red",
      "reading": "Needs ~$300bn/yr of AI revenue to break even on the buildout; running ~$70bn above pre-AI trend.",
      "manual": true,
      "detail": "Goldman: ~$300bn/yr needed to break even; cloud revenue annualising ~$70bn above pre-AI trend",
      "watch": "The gap has to close by revenue arriving — or by capex being cut. Watch cloud backlogs (RPOs), not headlines."
    },
    {
      "id": "us10y",
      "name": "3 · US 10-year Treasury yield",
      "value": "5.19%",
      "band": "amber",
      "reading": "Bands: under 4.75% bull-friendly · 4.75–5.50% neutral · 5.50–6.00% pressure · above 6.00% breaks the bull case.",
      "manual": false,
      "detail": "FRED DGS10 · 2026-10-14",
      "watch": "A sustained break above 6.00% is the trigger that forces the AI paper to reprice."
    },
    {
      "id": "brent",
      "name": "4 · Brent crude (Iran / Hormuz risk)",
      "value": "$102.54",
      "band": "amber",
      "reading": "Bands: under $85 benign · $85–115 chronic risk premium · $115–130 growth hit · above $130 the IMF downside case.",
      "manual": false,
      "detail": "52-week range $58.72–$126.10",
      "watch": "Trump's pre-midterm restraint on Iran expires after 3 Nov. A true Hormuz closure is the fastest route to $130+."
    },
    {
      "id": "breadth",
      "name": "5 · Breadth (equal-weight vs cap-weight)",
      "value": "20.7 pctile · S&P +6.6% vs 200dma",
      "band": "red",
      "reading": "RSP/SPY percentile over 12 months plus the S&P's distance from its 200-day. Narrow, cap-weighted rallies are the late-stage signature.",
      "manual": false,
      "detail": "RSP/SPY = 0.27857 · S&P 200-day = 7268",
      "watch": "Breadth improving while the index rises = healthy. Index up while breadth falls = the warning in my 2027–28 call."
    }
  ],
  "breadth": {
    "ratio": 0.27857319493773314,
    "pct": 20.717131474103585,
    "spx": 7744.06,
    "spx_ma200": 7267.619814453125,
    "spx_vs_ma200_pct": 6.555656428248735,
    "ndx_spx": 3.4494857994385373
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      "src": "yahoo",
      "as_of": "2026-10-16T09:07:11.279Z"
    },
    "us10y": {
      "value": 5.19,
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "src": "FRED DGS10"
    }
  },
  "manual": {
    "updated": "16 Oct 2026 (Q2 FY26 earnings round)",
    "fcf": [
      {
        "name": "Alphabet",
        "value": -5.86,
        "note": "reported; buybacks suspended"
      },
      {
        "name": "Amazon",
        "value": null,
        "note": "reported negative in Q2; not quantified in sources I have"
      },
      {
        "name": "Meta",
        "value": 0.78,
        "note": "reported; from ~$13bn a year earlier"
      },
      {
        "name": "Microsoft",
        "value": null,
        "note": "not in sources I have; capex $30.9bn/quarter"
      }
    ],
    "ai_rev_breakeven_usd_bn": 300,
    "ai_rev_incremental_usd_bn": 70,
    "ai_rev_note": "Goldman: ~$300bn/yr needed to break even; cloud revenue annualising ~$70bn above pre-AI trend",
    "debt_share_2027_pct": 35,
    "offbal_commitments_usd_tn": 3.1,
    "capex_path_usd_bn": {
      "2025": 405,
      "2026": 780,
      "2027": 1200,
      "2028": 1400
    }
  },
  "fcf_sum": -5.08,
  "rev_gap": 230,
  "errors": {},
  "counts": {
    "red": 3,
    "orange": 0,
    "amber": 2,
    "green": 0
  },
  "worst_rank": 0
}